UFC 317 Best Bets: Locks, Longshots, & More
By Joe Winkel (@JoeTheShowQCSN on X
Happy International Fight Week!
The UFC has been giving us a poo poo platter of content in the year 2025. Some good, some bad, a lot of ugly. We might not be getting all (or any) of the big fights we want yet this year, but it would be a lie to say this is not an exciting card especially on PPV. Let’s get into the money makers and try to cash out on some fun, shall we?
All odds found on Fanduel Sportsbook
Lock of the night
Brandon Royval ML (+108) over Joshua Van
I know this is boring, but Royval being a dog here is criminal. Joshua Van could very well be a title challenger one day, but these odds are disrespectful. In the business we like to say this is a “too much dip on the chip” type of scenario for Mr Van. I think Van has tons of potential, he has bounced back nicely over his last 4 fights, but taking this big of a leap in competition on 3 weeks notice I believe will be a bit too much. Royval is close to another crack at the 125 pound title, and a win here should put him next in line. Don’t disrespect “Raw Dawg”. At the end of the day, there are levels to the game.
Main Event Parlay
Topuria KO/TKO & Pantoja DEC (+397)
(ML Parlay -133)
I cannot begin to tell you how excited I am for the main event of UFC 317 between “El Matador” and “Do Bronx”. I also understand that picking against underdog Charles Olivera can come at a cost. I just think Ilia Topuria is on a collision course with greatness. It seems like this outcome is inevitable. Regardless, whatever happens I am so excited to see this clash. As for the Co-Main, Alexandre Pantoja is on an absolute tear. I love this combo of picks and the value cannot be beat. 3 of the 4 Pantoja title fights have gone the distance and I don’t see much changing here.
Favorite picks for the night
Renato Moicano (-118) over Beneil Dariush
Hold your breath folks. “Money” Moicano had his humble moment back in January when he stepped in on less than 24 hours notice to take on P4P King Islam Makhachev for the LW Title. Before that Moicano was lighting the world on fire in 2024. We will see if he can bounce back against Beneil Dariush who, on paper, has a lot of advantages in this fight. But this is a tale of the tape that says two ships are passing in the night. Dariush is on the receiving end of 2 brutal KO losses after being inches away from a title shot. Look for the downslide to continue unfortunately Saturday night.
Terrance McKinney KO/TKO (+160) over Viacheslav Borschev
Terrance McKinney's longest pro fight time is 10 minutes and 43 seconds, and that was the only time a fight he has had made it past the 2nd round. Even though he has stated that he wants to scale back a bit in the crazy department, sometimes you're just a born chaos agent.
The Wouldn’t It Be Hilarious Longshot
Niko Price (+1000) over Jacobe Smith
Okay, put the pitchforks down. Hear me out. By the time the cage door closes on this preliminary fight on Saturday evening in Las Vegas, Jacobe Smith will be making his 2nd appearance in the UFC off the Dana White Contender Series. He will also be closing as the biggest betting favorite in UFC History. Might I add again, he will be doing so in his 2nd fight in the UFC. Niko, go shake up the world buddy!