NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 18
Welcome to our final week of season twelve. Every year I continue this series to the final week of the season and wonder who actually reads it this far. There’s no chance you’re still alive in your league, hell most of my leagues were won by week eight this year with how many upsets we have seen. Yet, here we are, back for one more ride to end 2024. Maybe you do what I do and throw my three picks in a parlay to win some cash on the side. Maybe you are just a diehard fantasy nut and read these for fun. Maybe I’m just talking to myself. Who knows, but here we go, one more time. Let’s pick a winner!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Welcome to the best part of week 18! Every single game is a division matchup, so we grab the popcorn and move on to step two.
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
We also only have two prime time games this week. Both should be amazing, entertaining and games I wouldn’t dare to try to pick a winner:
· Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
· Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
The Indianapolis Colts were playing for their playoff lives last Sunday. All they needed to do was win out and the Broncos needed to lose, and they would take the seven seed. Even better, the Broncos lost their game Saturday night setting up a real opportunity for the Colts to sneak into the playoffs. All they had to do was beat the Giants in New York. The 2-13 Giants. The 2-13 Giants who were 0-8 at home and on the cusp of being the first team in NFL history to go 0-9 at home in a single season. Not a soul was picking the Giants here. The goal was to lose, secure the first overall pick in next year’s draft and get their QB of the future. Unfortunately, no one told Drew Lock this and he went wild throwing for more than 300 yards and 4 TDs as the Giants saved one of the biggest home upsets of the season for the second to last week of the season. Sorry Colts Fans, Home Field Advantage Is REAL!!!
Be aware and think twice before picking the below games where the favorite is the away team:
· Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
· Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
· Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
· Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
· Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
· Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Step 4 – Make your pick!
This week is all about who needs it more. Who needs to win to get into the playoffs. Who is playing starters vs. backups. Who wants it more?!?!?!:
My pick of the week is:
· Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the New Orleans Saints
Win and you’re in, lose and you might be out. It doesn’t get any simpler than this. If the Buccs win on Sunday, they clinch the division. This is Baker’s time.
Other options I like this week:
· Baltimore Ravens over the Cleveland Browns
Win and the AFC North is yours. Lose and you leave the door open for the Steelers to take the division. Time to see how badly Lamar wants that MVP trophy again.
· Denver Broncos over the Kansas City Chiefs
If the Broncos win, they make the playoffs, if they lose, they open the door for the Dolphins or Bengals to sneak in. After a tough loss last week the Broncos now host the Kansas City Chiefs backups who are playing for nothing. This same Broncos team was a blocked FG away from beating the Chiefs starters in KC, you don’t think they can beat their backups at home with the season on the line? The Broncos have a Super Bowl winning coach for this very reason. Good coaches don’t lose these games.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 41-10
Follow me on twitter/X and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!