NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 16
Welcome to season twelve of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Last week was a quiet week when it came to division matchups with only two division games. We saw a bit of a snoozer Thursday night in San Fran, where not a single touchdown was scored, although it was still a one score game when all was said and done. Then on Monday night the Vikings easily took care of the Bears to keep their slim bye week hopes alive. That all being said, don’t let one down week let you forget about how wild division games have been this season.
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
· Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
· Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
· New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
· Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
· Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
· Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
· Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
After what seemed like months of highly entertaining prime time games, we finally got a dud. The aforementioned Thursday night game didn’t have a single touchdown in it. Then the Sunday night game and first Monday night game were both blowouts. However, when all was said and done, two of the games were decided by only six points, even if they weren’t the most exciting to watch.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
· Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
· Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
· New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Last week seven teams traveled as the favorites on the road. While many were victorious, and while the Saints came oh so close to being the upset of the week before failing on a two point conversion with no time remaining, the only real upset we got was the Jets over the Jaguars in Jacksonville. While not the strongest rule we have, it does keep popping up here and there.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware and think twice before picking the below games where the favorite is the away team:
· Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
· Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
· Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
· Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
· Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
· Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Step 4 – Make your pick!
The final step is to see what you have left and pick the best option on the board. Eliminating all the games we crossed out above leaves us with a handful of games to pick from and here are my three favorites:
My pick of the week is:
· Cincinnati Bengals over the Cleveland Browns
Yes, this game is a division game and yes, the Bengals are 6-8, but welcome to week 16 where you’ve already taken all the good teams, and the only picks left this week are rule breakers. Despite being 6-8, the Bengals are on a two game winning streak and still believe they are alive for the playoffs (despite needing just short of a miracle for it to happen). The Browns on the other hand are in full tank mode and are starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson who has never thrown for more than 165 yards in a game and has just one touchdown in his entire regular season career. With this game taking place in Cincinnati, I just don’t see how DTR can keep pace with Burrow and Chase.
Other options I like this week:
· Green Bay Packers over the New Orleans Saints
Let’s give the Saints some credit, as they have played some competitive football under Darren Rizzi. They have won three of their past five games and were a failed two point conversion short of making it four of five. Now let’s take a look at Green Bay. They are 10-4 and their four loses have come at the hands of the Lions (x2), the Eagles, and the Vikings. The only teams that have beaten the Packers are the three teams in the NFC ahead of them in the standings. While the Saints are playing well, they are not playing well enough to knock off the Packers who are playing outstanding football.
· Buffalo Bills over the New England Patriots
There’s a very very slim chance you haven’t used the Bills to this point, but in the off chance you haven’t, this is probably the safest pick of the week. Ignore the fact this is a division game, the Bills are going to demolish the Patriots in Orchard Park on Sunday.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 35-10
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!