NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 12
Welcome to season twelve of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
One point. Two points. Three points. Those were the three point differentials in three of our four division games last week. The Packers needed a last second blocked field goal to beat the Bears by one. The Steelers needed to make a stop on a two-point conversion at the end of the game to beat the Ravens by two. Then the Seahawks scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left to beat the 49ers by three. What a week!
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
· Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
· Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
· New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
· Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
· Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
· Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
· Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
While the Eagles comfortably beat the Commanders on Thursday night and the Texans walloped the Cowboys on Monday night, the real fireworks came on Sunday. Despite the Chargers jumping out to a 27-6 lead early in the 3rd quarter, the Bengals came storming back and made it a tie game until J.K Dobbins rumbled into the end zone with 18 seconds left in the game. These are the prime time games we dream of!
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
· Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
· Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
· Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
This now makes two weeks in a row of basically no home field upsets. Yes the Steelers were technically the underdog, but with their record and the fact it was a division game, it ended up not being much of an upset. The good news is that there are so few home team favorites in a week with six teams on bye, we may be forced to ignore this step in week 12 anyways.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware and think twice before picking the below games where the favorite is the away team:
· Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
· Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
· Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
· Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants
· Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
· Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
· Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
· Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
Step 4 – Make your pick!
The final step is to see what you have left and pick the best option on the board. Eliminating all the games we crossed out above leaves us with a handful of games to pick from and here are my three favorites:
*With seven division games, three prime time games, eight road favorites and six teams on bye we are left with one game to chose from: Packers vs. 49ers. I don’t know about you, but I sure don’t feel like putting the weight of my eliminator season on the Packers, so it is time for RULE BREAKER WEEK!
My Rule Breaker pick of the week is:
· Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the New York Giants
The Buccaneers are coming off a bye and are facing the Giants who are going into full tank mode. Not only did the Giants bench their starting quarterback, but then they also skipped their backup to name their third string their new starter. This is to play a Buccaneers team potentially about to get back one of their star receivers. This could get ugly in New York.
Other options I like this week:
· Detroit Lions over the Indianapolis Colts
If you didn’t pick the Lions last week as my pick of the week, here is another chance. Arguably the best team in football, they should have no problems against a Colts team that barely beat the Jets last week and are 1-3 in their last four games.
· Kansas City Chiefs over the Carolina Panthers
Odds are by now you have already used Kansas City. If not, this will be the easiest pick you make all season.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 24-9
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!