NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 11
Welcome to season twelve of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
With another week comes another amazing slate of division matchups. Last week kicked off with a bang as the Bengals and Ravens went back and forth in a thriller resulting in 69 combined points and a game that came down to a failed two point conversion in the final seconds. Not to be outdone the Chiefs blocked a chip shot field goal in the final second on Sunday to knock off the Broncos at home, and even the Saints Falcons game was only decided by three points. As the season progresses these games keep getting better and better and better….
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
Despite the Monday night game being a bit of a snoozer, unless you’re a big fan of field goals, the other two prime time games were amazing. We already discussed the 69 point outing on Thursday night, but how about Sunday night? Despite an incredible five interceptions from Goff, the Lions came back from 23-7 to kick a game winning field goal with no time left on the clock. Jake Bates has ice in his veins, and another week passes to show us why we should avoid these games.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Snore. Home field advantage had a massive letdown in week ten. Houston, Tampa, and Jacksonville all had shots to pull off the upset at home, and all fell short. The only small treat we got was the Saints over the Falcons in New Orleans. By the way, how can you not love Darren Rizzi!
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Step 4 – Make your pick!
The final step is to see what you have left and pick the best option on the board. Eliminating all the games we crossed out above leaves us with a handful of games to pick from and here are my three favorites:
My pick of the week is:
Detroit Lions over the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Lions are good. The Lions are really good. How often can a team throw five interceptions (yes five!) and still win against a good opponent. Goff isn’t going to throw five interceptions every week, and when he doesn’t the Lions blow teams out. I don’t expect this one to be close.
Other options I like this week:
Miami Dolphins over the Las Vegas Raiders
The Dolphins are somehow still alive for the playoffs despite their terrible record, and now every game matters. While I don’t know what Miami team will show up for this game, if it is the team that barely lost to Buffalo in Buffalo, they should easily win this game. While not my favorite pick, as you get deeper into the season, the options become more and more limited.
New Orleans Saints over the Cleveland Browns
In Rizzi we trust! Do I love this pick? No. Do I believe in the power of interim coaches? Yes! This could very well be a massive mistake but the Saints played hard last weekend where on the other hand, the Browns seem more interested in getting the best possible pick in the draft next year. Proceed with caution.
Last Week’s Record = 1-2
Season Record = 21-9
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!